Laplace and the classical theory of probability

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I've spend a lot of time of my life preparing myself to dominate many concepts of mathematics, physics, and some others areas of science. However, as most of us, the academic training does not include a historical background on science (no history nor philosophy of science).

During this summer (yes, summer in the global south of the World), I've been reading an interesting popular science book on probability, La conquista del azar: la teoría de probabilidades by Fernando Corbalán and Gerardo Sanz, and I'm discovering the importance of Pierre-Simon Laplace in the development of the subject of statistics and probabilities.

In 1773, Laplace completed his Mémoire sur la probabilité des causes par les événements were his statistical thinking was elaborated. Later, in 1820 his final version of Essai philosophique sur les probabilités was published, in which the mathematics of inducting reasoning based in probabilities was set out.

Among the interesting things pointed by Laplace we can count:

  1. The principle of equal probability of all events.
  2. Definition of probability as the ratio of favorable events to the total possible events.
  3. The probability of occurrence of independent events is the multiplication of their probabilities.
  4. Probability of compound events when they are related, and other basic concepts of what is currently known as "Bayesian" probability.

His Essai includes the theory of probability-generating functions, the method of least squares, characteristic functions and central limit theorem.

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Author: Oscar Castillo-Felisola

Created: 2026-04-02 Thu 14:59